> I'll probably start in a couple of hours.
that was posted two days ago, so i guess its safe to say he was arrested and is probably dead by now

>>118942

Or he's a lazy fuck.

So let's see. Things have gotten weird. I'll start from recent developments.

Usually it's rare to see this level of tension. Where true or false, people are genuinely concerned about the possibility of war. Not concern for the near future like average Iranian has 24/7 but concern for whether something might start tomorrow.

Let's rewind a few days back. I wake up, Iranian news outlets overjoyed with a piece of news start reporting.

"Explosions in Fujaira port, eyewitnesses report French and American warplanes passing"

Then a Lebanese news source cites the iranian sources, then sputnik jumps on it they all can't contain their enthusiasm.

Half an hour to an hour later, local government(IIRC Fujira belongs to one of the sections that together form the United Arab Emirate) has issues statements downright denying it. To the point sputnik is being roasted in comments on Twitter, now you can't expect much from Sputnik but this is some really low tier shit.

Few hours later, Fujira is reporting explosions involving a number of commercial ships. No death, no spillage.

So this where things are getting interesting. Did Iranian sources which seems to be the first report it before it happened? Did it happen but somehow local government was unaware hours and hours? Or they wanted to cover it up? If so why? It's not like explosions on a number of tankers or container ships is easy to hide anyway.

So I tried to come up with any possible theory that fit into the weirdness of the picture. Unfortunately I couldn't find clear details on the incident to write off some of the theories.

1. IR is responsible, wants to be first to report. Miscommunication leads to reporting it before it happens.

2. IR isn't responsible, rather is fed misinformation from shady local assets so they WOULD report it before anyone else not realizing it's a false flag meant to implicate them.

3. Intentionally or unintentionally, a piece of dubious info reaches IR, the part with western warplanes makes it extra juicy and hard to resist. They report it, whether pre mediated or just spontaneously, someone on US/Saudi side thinks this is perfect, if they turn the false news into reality, it could work in their favur in numerous ways(I'll discuss that part later.

4. It's false flag, from beginning to the end, no twist.

Fortunately there's now more info but IF it was a false flag, consider that the small details including time of incident could've been manipulated.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Fujairah_incident


Now much like a murder, look at motives, means and opportunities.

Opportunity, well fuck who didn't have it. Pretty much everyone had it.


Means? well live in a time where drug lords use submarines. One report mentions unmanned remote controlled device, didn't seem to specify, submersible or otherwise but apparently the devices were stuff any party involved could afford.

Now the best part, motive... who gains what from this?

US, well, let's assume US wants a war, with precedent like operation praying mantis or nimble archer provide easy context for using this as a semi solid excuse for US to start something and from operation desert storm we can see US jumping on the opportunity to rip someone a new one when an ally is attacked, doesn't have to be the reason but it makes a great excuse.

Saudis, well, what better way to convince US to start the war? or better yet, to convince UAE they have to take a side?

IR, well this is again where things get interesting. On the surface, it'd be almost idiotic, no tactical or strategic value. Not even an effective attack, full of cons and no pros. But...

But before I get into their motives, I must first explain something about IR.

But there are many sides in the regime here, some are in fact tired of it all, some want to ease the tensions, some want what they feel they are diplomatically owed but aren't interested in tension... and then you got hardliners which they themselves come in many shades. Now most of them aren't genuinely ideologically driven, this place is a kleptocracy masqurading as a theocracy but they've been feeding off an ideology for years and now stepping back means either looking like a pussy OR... not being themselves anymore. It's like you building an entire government and gain followers by a firm belief in unicorns, one day you're almost going into a physical confrontation about it with an equestrian enthusiast and realize you know there are no unicorns but you just can't back out of it anymore.

So hardliners of different sides, many of whom actually benefitted from the tensions and sanctions don't want the party to end but wonder how wild is it getting. Some are legitimately insane especially find the idea of confrontation appealing because while they DO believe the ideology they also practice cognitive dissoance to the point where the idea of sending your family to UK while screaming death to UK doesn't even seem surreal to them.

Why did I went on to explain all of that to explain a motive for IR? well, when you're trying to figure out what a rational person would do, you'll look for some sensible logic in it, some rational explanation and then you exclude the other explanation for being irrational. But to you the idea of blowing yourself up to kill others in order to get the approval of god and going to heaven is... irrational. But to someone else based on their logic and rationale it seems totally sensible.

So hardliners here consists of different groups, profiteers which at some level most of them are. The political ones and then the ultimate ideological ones, those who legitimately believe they are destined to spread the word of Shi'a Islam, fight western imperialism, spread the revolution and so on... Their hobbies consists of sending others ranging from Afghan, Pakistani, Iraqi and Iranian young men into proxy wars, crying at muharram and playing crash bandicoot tag team racer on PS1. Their favorite colour is green and they enjoy romantic walks in countries they help fuck up through proxy wars.

Now I explained all this so that when I discuss motives, you don't exclaim "but how can someone be that stupid?".

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Oh let's hear another story before getting back into the subject.

Well back in Iran-Iraq war or 8 year war or holy defense as they called it here, at some point Iraq got sanctioned so they relagged their tankers under kuwait and started selling oil under the table. One day Iraq is making X mil barrels of oil and Kuwait is selling Y mil, next day Iraq is selling no oil and Kuwait is selling X+Y mil... fucking magic. Now for that and for others Kuwait aids to Iraq, IR tried to... send Kuwaitis a message.

The message was, shelling Iraq using North Korean 170mm Koksan artillery... well they did the shelling over Kuwait. So I dunno how many times in history an artillery shell spent considerable part of it's path over a a third country, before going from the country of origin to the country target.

Now if only a time traveler from early nineties could go back to 80s kuwait and tell them about the future they might've reconsidered helping Saddam and saved everyone the trouble. Oh and before anybody decides to steal my ideas, I'm copyrighting this shit. This is NOT gonna be like Avatar all over again, fucking Cameron.

What does it all have to do with Saudi ships getting bombed in a port in UAE anyway? well...

IR motives.

Well let's imagine US doesn't want tension but war, so they'll need allies, normally neighboring countries don't want to get into this kind of shit because well, US comes and goes or comes and doesn't go but they're stuck next to each other for the forseeable future as long as tectonic plates don't separate us which for middle east wouldn't be a bad idea but anyway, they don't want to get into this shit for economical, political and other reasons.

If UAE was to outright lend hand to US, for example providing service to US warships DURING a conflict, they'd become a legitimate target and unlike ships, you can't drag whole countries away. So a country like UAE which counts on oil and commerce with international community and counts on a lot of outside money pouring in wouldn't want to get involved.

Now the idea of IR blowing ships in there to make a point to UAE that helping them realize they wouldn't want to help US/Saudis seems counter productive, at the very least it carries the risk of a 180 and in fact push UAE into the arms of US... or pushing the 'arms' of the US right into UAE... hehe... get it? because arms mean... thank you thank you, don't forget to tip your waiters, I'll be here all week, FPoP's stand up show is here to stay, I'm punning for the permanent position ya'll.

So where was I oh yeah, totally coutner productive right? well to a rational mind definitely, at the very least it carries that risk... but unfortunately there are people on top level here that don't seem very rational. To them, the idea of beating a kid or threatening a kid so that they wouldn't take side with a bigger guy seems totally logical.

So IF IR did it, did they do it as a message to UAE? Don't help US or else these ships look very precious and fragile and would be a shame if soemthing to happen to them? Did they do it as a message to Saudis? Basically telling them to stop feeding the fire or the gulf will plunge into another tanker war and it wouldn't be good for anybody? Or a message to the international community? "See? we CAN turns this entire gulf into shit show."

Oh since we're in middle east, throw in the oligatory Mossad false flag theory as well. We can't have a theory without them. It'd be wrong.

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>>118943

The struggle is real.

> eyewitnesses report French and American warplanes passing

Pic related.

>>118952
>French warplanes

comedy researchers at the university of chicago recently published peer reviewed numerical data and analysis proving that "european military" is the funniest 8 syllable phrase in the english language